ETHIOPIA AND THE THE HORN OF AFRICA:
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia
ETHIOPIA is an immensely strategic nation and the key to peace and prosperity in the Horn and Red Sea regions. A battle currently rages between those with a vision for a strong, united Ethiopia versus ethno-nationalist and separatists who would tear Ethiopia apart along ethnic lines.
The leading proponents of ethno-nationalism are the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF; historically led by Marxists) and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF; officially secular but dominated by Muslims, many of whom are radical Islamists).
NOTE: the TPLF and OLF are organisations; they do not represent all Tigreans nor all Oromo. Many (if not most) Tigreans and Oromo are committed Ethiopians.
A strong, united, prosperous Ethiopia would not merely be a blessing to all Ethiopians, but to Africans across the whole Horn and Red Sea region. On the other hand, whilst ethno-nationalism might empower some, it would trigger widespread ethnic cleansing of minorities and gross insecurity nationwide. Those most at risk are the mostly Orthodox Christian ethnic Amhara (who also happen to be one of the most impoverished people groups in the world). For the ethnic Amhara – who have long intermarried and lived and worked as ethnic minorities outside of Amhara State – the collapse of Ethiopia would trigger a Christian crisis of monumental proportions.
NOTE: Both Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Omoro nationalist figurehead Jawar Mohammed are products of ethnic-religious intermarriage. Both have a Muslim Omoro father (which according to Islam means both men were born Muslim) and both have an Orthodox Christian Amhara mother. While Jawar has retained his Muslim identity and radicalised, PM Abiy, embraced his mother’s Christian faith, eventually aligning, as an adult, with Protestant Christianity.
Commencing 1991, the TPLF-dominated Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) government Balkanised Ethiopia, a division which was institutionalised in the constitution of 1994.
Recommended:
Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and its Discontents
International Crisis Group, 4 September 2009
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/ethiopia-ethnic-federalism-and-its-discontents
Since February 2018, the new government led by PM Abiy Ahmed has been working to end TPLF hegemony, broker peace with Eritrea, unite the peoples as Ethiopians, and prevent a Balkan-style ethnic-religious conflagration. The stakes could not be higher!
Recommended:
Ethiopia-Eritrea: Reforms and Resistance
Religious Liberty Monitoring, 25 June 2018
http://elizabethkendal.blogspot.com/2018/06/ethiopia-and-eritrea-reforms-and.html
On 29 October 2020, the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) released a report by its Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena. The report notes that political transitions in Sudan and Ethiopia have “set the region on a transformative new trajectory toward reform and stability”. However, it warns that state failure “would send a tidal wave of instability across Africa and the Middle East” (page 4). “Given their populations of approximately 45 million and 105 million, Sudan and Ethiopia are respectively more than two times and six times the size of pre-war Syria. Fragmentation of either country would be the largest state collapse in modern history, likely leading to mass inter-ethnic and inter-religious conflict; a dangerous vulnerability to exploitation by extremists; an acceleration of illicit trafficking, including of arms; as well as a humanitarian and security crisis at the crossroads of Africa and the Middle East on a scale that would overshadow the existing conflicts in South Sudan, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen” (page 10).
Recommended:
Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena, 29 October 2020, by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena.
https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/10/final-report-and-recommendations-senior-study-group-peace-and-security-red-sea
Not only are the TPLF and OLF cooperating with each other to advance their shared ethno-nationalist agenda, but hostile foreign powers that stand to gain from a destabilised Ethiopia – for example Egypt, and the Sudanese military and deep state – are supporting the TPLF and OLF to that end. Meanwhile, Islamic terrorist organisations al-Qaeda and Islamic State are poised to pounce. Islamic State has been recruiting in Amharic and training for jihad in Ethiopia since at least July 2019.
See: Ethiopia: Church Protests – Watershed Days
by Elizabeth Kendal, 18 September 2019
http://rlprayerbulletin.blogspot.com/2019/09/rlpb-520-ethiopia-church-protests.html
